second, wait a second, romney-ryan, romney-ryan. >> cenk: oh, that's painful. and first of all the denies of reality are fantastic. second of all racism. wow, i didn't see that coming. we'll show you what we're talking about. and later in the program, it is okay to deface property if it is about hate speech. >> what are you doing? >> i do. >> you are under arrest. >> for what? >> joy: and our bacon is in jeopardy. i'm going to tell you about that on the show too. i can't have it! go time! [♪ theme music ♪] >> cenk: now you know i love

predictions on this show. i went pretty far 12 days ago. here is what i said. having said that it is no longer even, it's nowhere near even. right now if nothing changes it is not going to be close. it's going to be a landslide, and at this point, i'll even go further. he doesn't need a game changer anymore, . he needs a miracle. and now i'm about to go further. a minor miracle will no longer do it. so barring a major miracle, i'm calling the election right now. it's already over. i know a lot of you are thinking don't jinx it. jinxes are for another thing. but in reality i'll show you why this thing is already over. how is mitt romney doing in running a campaign. look at these numbers 61% saying

he is doing a poor job, unfavorable, 35% favorable. this number tells you, the way you run your campaign is a disaster. and that's not just democrats and independents, that's even republicans saying, jesus what are you doing? all right. we're just getting warmed up. let's go to the 47% comments. about how he doesn't care about 47% of the country are going to hurt him big time. he was already massively down in the polls 12 days ago. and i said wait until you get aload of this polls after the 47-% remark. when asked about it, 54% of the country viewed him unfavorable. then in florida, show me that number again. how many are you familiar with the marks, 89%. so everybody heard it. but in a critical state like

florida. but it is like this all over the country. everybody heard it. 58% think that it was an inappropriate comment -- this is independents in florida -- and 37% think it was appropriate. again, that's a giant 21-point difference, so if you have got that kind of difference, and independents hate what you said on top of the fact that you were already doing poorly you are going to be in big, big trouble. what does that lead to. here is the latest poll in florida overall 53-44. 53-44. there isn't that much time left. romney is losing florida, which he absolutely positively needs by nine points. look if you are not familiar with politics -- this is why i'm doing this so you understand. nine points is not a little. that's a giant lead. that's not going to change

overnight. he is in big trouble. it's not even trouble. you are not going to make up nine points. not in a regular election or any election i have seen. if it was just florida you would say that's one thing. let's look at pennsylvania. 12 points over. i have never seen somebody come back from 12 points in this limited of time. gone, pennsylvania is off of the board. ohio, boy. are you kidding me. republicans can't win without ohio. i'll tell you the specifics about that in a second. 53-43. you can't win if you are mitt romney. it is a ten-point lead. i'm trying to impress upon you, ten-point lead is not a little. it's gigantic. all right. we're not done yet. now why did he get creamed in

ohio? well, for many different reasons. frank luntz who is the republican pollster pushes this one ad of priorities usa ran. look at how devastating this ad is. >> out of the blue one day we were told to build a 30-foot stage, rather the guys, and we built that 30-foot stage, not knowing what it was for. days later, all three shifts were told to assemble in the warehouse, a group of people walked out on that stage, and told us that the plant is now closed, and all of you are fired. mitt romney made over $100 million by shutting down our plant. turns out, that when we built that stage, it was like building my own coffin. >> cenk: damn! god that's howerful! in ohio they are blue collared

they see an ad like that and it is in the words of frank lund devastating, devastating. now you lose ohio let me show you how devastating that is. ohio voters have directly picked the winning presidential candidate in the last 11 elections. but it gets better no republican has ever won an election without winning ohio. he is down by ten. we don't have that much time left to go. tick tock, tick tock. this thing is over. all right. how about female voters. look at these gigantic leads. florida, ohio, pennsylvania, how about male voters? "politico" did an article about that. they talked to a guy they love. he was just recently [ inaudible ] to the gop.

but here is what he said again, talking about that 47% comment that romney made saying i don't care about 47% of the country. bob said quote, what i took away is . . . when you lose guys like that and "politico" writes about how he might be in danger of losing white males. who do you have left? you already lost african-americans, latinos, women, if you lose the white males, who are you going to get to vote for you? this is bad, really bad. it gets worse. now in the "new york times," craig robinson former director of the republican party in iowa

said the election has gotten so bad, let me give you the quote -- i hate to say this but if ryan wants to run for national ryan office again, he will probably have to wash the stren. -- stench of romney off of him. god, that's unreal! this is where it gets wonderfully awkward. mitt romney and paul ryan are at a rally. the crowd is chanting for ryan, and romney tries to get them to chant for him too. watch this. [ cheers and applause ] >> woi! that's quite a guy, isn't it? paul ryan that's something. wait a second, romney/ryan! romney/ryan! there we go. all right. that's great. thank you. >> cenk: oh jesus, chanted that. that was awesomely awkward. let me give you one final piece

of context. the candidate leading two or three weeks following the convention has gone on to win every modern presidential election, every one of them over the last 15 presidential elections. we are two or three weeks from the last convention. in fact there is only 41 days left. that's it. you are not going to make up leads like that in ohio pennsylvania, florida, states that you desperately need. barring a major miracle, not a game changer, not two game changers, maybe not even three game changers, barring a major miracle this thing is already over. everybody is going to tell you all of these things because they want you to keep watching, and of course you have to vote. if you don't vote, of course you will lose. but the reality is, as the match up goes, i'm a betting man, i

know when i have lost or won a game, and in this case, mitt romney has loss. all right. now when we come back, they are going to try to counterattack, because they are desperate, understandably so. and. and what are they going to use? denial and racism. >> this president in my opinion is absolutely lazy, and detached from his job. ♪ >> cenk: gee i wonder what he is talking about? we'll have more examples when we come back. and then the elbow of the day. who is it going to be? ♪

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>> cenk: so as we just explained romney is down dramatically in the polls. 12 in pennsylvania 10 in ohio, 9 in florida. he is down, and i think he is out. apparently a lot of republicans agree with me, because they are in a panic. so they have three desperate counterattacks. one of them is flat out denighal. i think these polls understate romney's support. >> i don't believe the polls really matter until the debates begin. >> i think the first time we should look at the polls in all sincerity is after the debates. >> i just don't describe to him getting blown out. >> cenk: no way, it is not going

to happen. such a republican thing to do, but who is the master of denying reality? here comes dick morris. >> he is at the moment in a very strong position. if the election were held today, romney would win by four or five points. i believe he would carry florida, ohio virginia, nevada. pennsylvania -- >> oh, come on. >> pennsylvania, and i believe he would be competitive in michigan. >> cenk: you know you really have to be crazy for hannity to go come on. this is now being called pole trutherism. and i love what our own michael shure started. he started a hashtag called dick morris predictions. no one will even notice that the nfl is even using replacement reps. he is already catching on fire.

i love it. another way that they go here with the counterattacks is mitt romney doing an on-air ad. when you see the actual candidate in the ad, you know he is in a little bit of trouble. why? because they don't normally go in that direction. he is trying to do a personal appeal. here is mitt romney trying. >> romney: president obama and i both care about poor and middle class families, the difference is my policies will make things better for them. we shouldn't measure compassion by how many people are on welfare. we should measure compassion by how many people are able to get off of welfare and get a better job. >> cenk: problem number 2 if you have to start your ad by talking about how great your opponent is, you are in trouble. >> i'm not a witch. i'm nothing you have heard.

i'm you. i'll go to washington, and do what you would do. i'm christine o'donnell, and i approve this message. >> cenk: on-camera ads are really dicey. what is point number 3? when you are at the bottom of the barrel, how do you go below the bottom of the barrel? you go to implied and obvious racism. watch this. >> let me tell you what the big problem with this president is in my opinion. he is absolutely lazy, and detached from his job. >> cenk: okay. lazy black guy. now if it's just sununu, you might say it's just sununu. i don't remember him calling bush that.

george w. bush with 1,020 vacation days obama with 78. and it's not just john sununu. here is newt gingrich to make it very, very clear. >> i'm assuming there's some rhythm to barack obama that the rest of us don't understand. whether he needs large amounts of rest, whether he needs to go play basketball for a while, i don't watch espn -- i don't quite know what his rhythms are. he is not a real president. >> cenk: play basketball. he doesn't work hard enough. i don't know what his rhythm is. come on newt just say it. i don't know if you know this fox news but he is black! yeah newt i have news for you. they know. and now you didn't need a political man just as epic to try to solve it for the republicans, right?

♪ all right michael shure first of all do you think i have gone overboard in calling the election? >> i'm of two schools of thought about that. i think you are not overboard. i think everything we are lead to believe right now shows a floundering romney. i spent a lot of time trying to figure out what he can possibly do to win, and i don't see anyplace. and even if the president makes a mistake and sort of self devastates, it still isn't going to make a difference. i would put a ton of resources in iowa and go to nevada and colorado and see what you can do.

but there's no bright spot for mitt romney right now. >> cenk: that's exactly their problem. they are already at the bottom. what are you going to do? that's why they go to basketball and lazy, and that's not going to work. >> no. and the guy has been running for president now for 21 months -- and seven years on top of that. they know him and they don't like him. newt gingrich was saying obama is not a real president. i don't know what newt gingrich is. he is not even a real nominee. >> cenk: and the entire republican party is in trouble. tommy thompson is running for senate in wisconsin, and he accidentally admits what their real plans are.

watch. >> who better than me [ inaudible ] . . . >> cenk: there he is saying i'm going to do away. who better than me than to do away with medicare and medicaid. >> yeah, and these people are getting caught on tape. they are getting caught being who they are. and romney is doing it. tommy thompson is doing it. you are going to say that to seniors in wisconsin. >> cenk: and sharon brown, up by 12. >> i have to tell you, one of the reasons that democrats want this race to stay close is they want the people not to think the race is over. because they need democrats to come out in senate races. if the race is seen as over, that is going to create a lot of lackadaisical voters. >> cenk: when we do political

analysis, we have to be objective about it. don't say, hey, hey, hey. i want the democrats to win, so cenk, michael don't say that. right. we give you some opinion, but when we're doing analysis that's as objective as we can get. and i have called it the other way against democrats all the time in the last 17 years. when we come back we're going to have a little bit of a supreme court. are you allowed to deface messages if they are hate messages? membership. welcome in. american express. f f

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v

ut this one might hit home. we're going to lose 10% production in europe and 1.3% reduction in u.s. of our bacon. our bacon. climate change! don't do it to him! oh, there it is! the oil companies ruining our bacon! and oil subsidies are always involved, but poor harvest is a huge part of the reason why. overall gdp we are losing. in 2011 we lost 1.6% of gdp

because of climate change. and up to 10% will be lost by 2100. that is devastating. so in the middle of the ring unfortunately is the earth. no, don't do it, oil companies! what are you doing? it isn't right. let's fight climate change so we can keep our bacon. keep your priorities straight. that's our show. we'll see you tomorrow. ♪ >> eliot: good evening. i'm eliot spitzer and this is "viewpoint." president obama continues to gain in the polls, nationally and in the key swing states while surrogates for both candidates try to lower expectations for next week's debates. the national numbers first.